Analysts ponder slowest growth since 2014
21. 11. 2016 | Source: BusinessInfo.cz
The summer saw the Czech economy experience its weakest quarterly growth rate in two years. Preliminary estimates show that year on year just 1.9 percent of growth was achieved in the third quarter. As we approach the mid-point of the fourth quarter, the economic revival thus seems to be losing steam.
Low investment and the apparent industrial slowdown of late seem to be impacting on the country. The economy, meanwhile, is having to cope with the effects of less than impressive growth rates being experienced by neighbouring countries.
“Looking at the low growth in the third quarter, we are going to re-evaluate our full- -year prognosis for the Czech economy downwards from the current 2.6 percent,” said Moody’s Analytics’ analyst Tomáš Holinka. The cooling, he added, could be attributed to less favourable developments in Germany, where around one-third of Czech exports are absorbed, and decelerated growth in Poland and Hungary.
The Czech Republic’s more restrained performance could also prove a headache for the Czech National Bank [ČNB]. The central bank’s outlook issued in early November counted with growth for the third quarter coming in at nearly one-third up year on year. The unfulfilled expectation could result in the bank’s weak crown policy being extended.
“If the economy was to also grow more slowly across the subsequent quarter, the arrival of price growth could be more gradual and there would be an increased likelihood of a further shifting of the target date for abandoning the exchange rate commitment,” said Deloitte Czech Republic chief economist David Marek.
Originally published in E15 weekly, economic and business newsmagazine. Author: Jaroslav Bukovský